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Strategies & Market Trends : Classic TA Workplace
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To: The Freep who wrote (50086)8/14/2002 8:34:26 PM
From: bcrafty  Read Replies (2) of 209892
 
Freep, your points are well taken

It really doesn't matter WHY it happened, just THAT it happened.

But your comment about "why the move isn't real or is manufactured or whatever" deserves some comment. All of us use various indicators, chart patterns, and wave scenarios to help us with our trading and to identify "real" moves and the market's likely future direction. For example, the low volume recently since 7/24 has had many questioning whether the rally thus far is "real." Thus when our trusted indicators, chart patterns, etc fail us we begin to ask why they have done so and we start looking for other explanations - especially when they start happening frequently, as this is the second time in a week we've had a couple hundred point Dow move in the mid afternoon that has seemed to come out of nowhere, moves that no intraday TA could have prepared us for.

As far as the "focus on minutia" in a way I think we should be focusing more on 15-minute to hourly charts rather than on any bigger picture than this until we start getting some clearer direction, particularly if we are going to be regularly subjected to these major intraday whipsaws. For example Allan last night posted a nice weekly IBM chart with a target of 58, but how can we even attempt a short entry to that scenario at this time if we're getting these big intraday whipsaws?

I agree that months from now many people will look back at our posts from this time and think we weren't seeing the forest for the trees. But what I'm saying is that right now it's difficult to even see the trees.
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