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Biotech / Medical : Elan Corporation, plc (ELN)

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To: William Partmann who wrote (3070)	8/15/2002 9:59:31 AM
From: Harold Engstrom	Read Replies (2) of 10345

All the bad news and risk is out there. I'm not sure it is well understood, because the emphasis is on the downside and we have travelled the downside already. How about upside risk? Look at Antegren: the Crohns trials will be complete perhaps by the end of the year - accrued and complete (8-10 week trials). If the results are good then an NDA will be filed within a few months. The MS trials will not finish until late 2003/early 2004, but you can bet that if Crohns results are good that the market will suddenly give the MS indication more value. All Elan needs to do is stave off creditors through the end of 2003 if it really has the pipeline many, including myself, believe it does have. Antegren is a jewel - validated by several companies (including Biogen, Merck and - I think - Genentech) having attempted to develop this compound. The partnership with Biogen can be counted a strong indication that Antegren is likely to succeed: Biogen is loathe to spend any money on 3rd party compounds and pinches every penny. Biogen has spent and will continue to invest real money and resources into this project. IMO, this is significant.

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