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Non-Tech : Raptor's Den
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To: JRI who wrote (2712)8/15/2002 12:08:09 PM
From: velociraptor_  Read Replies (1) of 10157
 
MSFT just back tested the lower wedge line of that giant triangle it made during most of the summer. I didn't think it could make it but it did. Overall, there's no conviction on the long side. Volume remains low and is still in a falling trend. I went back and looked at the charts for last Sept and the volume pattern off this low was a lot different. There was an underlying volume rise. This time though, there's a clear decline and we've even started to fall below volume levels at the Sept rise. If we hit a low, the bulls aren't buying it.

Falling volume trends tend to occur in patterns which are counter trend to the main trend, espcially if the falling vollume decreases throughout the rises and the falls within the corrective pattern. That is exactly what we are seeing. I don't have any long signals. 75% of all charts have some really nice bear flags forming if you look at the bigger picture including a number of sector charts and major index charts. New lows are still 3 times bigger than new highs even though new lows have contracted off the July 23rd bottom and remain at high levels. It's like the underlying maket is still falling apart.

We're stretching the limits of this rally and need to see a top soon. Triangles are starting to break, but again, still absolutely zero volume spikes on the breaks. If it were bullish we should have had a volume spike so it all still smells corrective.
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