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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group

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To: Bilow who wrote (38010)8/15/2002 6:59:15 PM
From: carranza2  Read Replies (1) of 281500
 
The basic problem is one of obtaining assistance and support from allies. There are basically three ways of obtaining support. (a) You can bribe the other country, but that doesn't go far enough to make them do something that would destabilize themselves. (b) You can use your power to convince them that being your ally is a good idea, but as I've noted on this thread, US power in terms of conquering enemy territory and changing the minds of the locals is nearly zero. (c) You can get them to sign on as allies because what you want is what they want, but since the basic problem is destabilization, this is not possible in this case. (d) But if you can get them to be sympathetic towards you, you're in like flint. And if your cause is the one that attracts sympathy, you've also solved the destabilization problem, because their populations will be in support of action too.

Or you can tell them that we're going in anyway with the kind of overwhelming power seen in Afghanistan and the Gulf War, and suggest to them that they'd be crazy to support a loser or not support the clear-cut winner. A variant of "grab them by the b---s and their hearts and minds will follow".

Unfortunately, the sad fact is that Iraq has defeated us in the sympathy contest.

The sympathy war is just now being fought. When enough evidence of chemical weapon use on the Kurds is repeated ad nauseum, and the evidence of Saddam's other atrocities becomes well-known, whatever advantage he may have will melt away.

Sympathy is not a static thing.
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