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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM)
QCOM 176.67+1.6%Nov 12 3:59 PM EST

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To: Art Bechhoefer who wrote (123200)8/15/2002 9:09:38 PM
From: cfoe  Read Replies (2) of 152472
 
OT? re: interest rates and inflation.

...with pressure on inflation coming from
(1) reduced grain yields from a major drought in the midwest


Heard an agra-expert say that most if not all of any shortage in US will be made up from overseas growers. As an example he said that Brazil is poised to produce more soybeans than the US because of the drought. Therefore, price impact of drought will be minimal.

(2) continued high prices for crude oil, natural gas, and refined oil products (due in part to the filling of the petroleum reserve in case of a war with Iraq), long term interest rates may be headed up ...

Definitely an unknown. It could drive the long-term US Treasury bond up in price (and drop interest rate) with a flight to quality.

It's also unlikely that the Federal Reserve will reduce the federal funds rate if inflation picks up.

Not if they see a much bigger threat in deflation. Japan's experience for hte last ten years shows that it is much easier to address inflation that deflation.

They're really big on dampening the effects of inflation, even if it means dampening the whole economy.

See item above.
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