Companies frequently organize meetings with Wall Street analysts and fund managers. Usually, it is done in conjunction with the unveiling of some new technology or corporate development. Since the meeting is not open to the general public one rarely sees a press release.
Since I am a private portfolio manager, I have somtimes been invited to such meetings. Trust me, those analysts, brokers, and fund managers who attend these things are largely a skeptical bunch with expert knowledge of the relevant industry. They usually ask the hard questions. The fact that AIPN is willing to face such an audience on July 28 in NYC suggests to me that they feel confidant about their prospects.
Taylor, thanks for your analysis of the various possible scenarios.The part that I might disagree with you about is the dilution of shares from 37 million to 70 million. This has to be pure guesswork on your part...but let's review your scenarios as per your projections.
Base Case : $0.35/share
Scenario 1 : $3.50/share
Scenario 2 : $0.70/share
Scenario 3 : $7.00/share
Scenario 4 : $10.60/share
Scenario 5 : $21.20/share
In my opinion the "Base Case"scenario is flawed because, in addition to the .35 that you mention you have to add the book value of their refinery which is .40/share. So, your base case is really .75/share while your Scenario 2 has to be $1.10 book value. Also, all of your calculations are based on estimates for only 60% of the concession. Should the remaining 40% be shown to have "potential" reserves as well I would assume that you would revise your scenario estimates upward..albeit conservatively. Frankly,given the fact that I am not one of those who believes that this is a $100 stock next week, I find all your scenarios very comfortable especially in light of the fact that most companies trade on a multiple of earnings.
As for the 10-K not showing that the company has any money, I have a question. The 10-K covers corporate developments through December 31, 1996 (unless they are on a different calender year). Does your copy of the 10-K show any revenue from the sale of the South American operation? The reason I ask is that I am under the impression that that sale took place in 1997 and, thus, would not be reflected in the 10-K to which you refer. I may be wrong.
Cheers....Faris |
