Allan,
I agree that non-tech has probably put in an intermediate-term bottom, but I'm not in the cyclical bull camp, which I would define as a bottom holding a year or more, possibly a four-year cycle low. I think the Lowry's study makes a compelling case for a definition of capitulation as multiple 90% down days, and we haven't had one, a sign that too many were eager to pick the bottom instead of giving up and dumping everything.
That said, the Dow was IMO as oversold in July as it was in October 1998 or September 2001:
stockcharts.com[l,a]waclyyay[d19980401,20020816][pb50!b200!b20][vc60][iLl14!La12,26,9]&pref=G
I've looked at every major bottom (basically, an enduring low from a deep bear market of some duration) in the Dow's 105-year history, and major bottoms seem to fall into one of two categories: either a low with a retest (within 3%, as I recall) 1-3 months later, or a week or so bouncing along the bottom on low volume, almost in a rounding pattern. I haven't been able to find a single bear market that ended in a high-volume one-day reversal. (I should note I posted this observation at the start of the year on SA II and was greeted with skepticism.)
So in a nutshell, we had a deeply oversold market, which means the bounce could last a while, but my guess is this low could hold for as much as 9 months, but not much more than that. We may not even disagree on this point; that could be your "many months."
JMHO,
Paul |
