re: The 10 year Bond move...
...back from vacation....and I did bring JTech back some cheese from Wisconsin ...just letting it age a bit (vbg).
Saw Frank Cashin on CNBC after the close today... he's a straight shooter - no BS...and he was open & honest today as always and hit on a couple of very important facts imho...
ie:
- his "perplexity" and his fear (did you see it in his eyes ?).
...Cashin commented on the amount of money that was needed to move the bond market - ie: to the degree the 10 years moved here in such a short period of time...he commented that the Dow stocks would traditionally move say 800 points on that much of a money shift...interesting Food for thought imo.
Seems like some "big" money is making some "big moves" and the market doesn't know why and the market doesn't like it when big money is moving and they don't know why...someone's not playing fair ?
A lot of contradictions in this market... the Fed doing a 180 from one FOMC meeting to the next was the primary example. Not a real confidence builder imo...that Greenspan has a freekin clue.
F' the Fed imho... watch the Bond boys...
Other disconnects - Circuit City tanks, lowers numbers & the outlook for consumer electronics drastically, then the housing numbers fall .... but, the retailers rally ?
Ford is getting hammered & the market is obviously telling us what we already know about the double edged sword nature of "0" financing that can not go on unpunished forever, but yet the Bull/Strong Economy pundits are simultaneously touting strong auto sales ?
Corporate and personal Bankruptcies are parabolic, deliquencies and charge-off's below the "creative accounting/public reporting" radar screen are in "off the chart" territory (just not getting publically reported honestly), but yet we keep hearing about how resilient the US Consumer is...?
Lot's of ironies and disconnects out there people... and that doesn't particularly make for High Reward - Low/Moderate Risk Opportunies imho... and those are the only one's I'm interested in...
It shouldn't be surprising that just as the Bulls stayed too bullish for too long; that the Bears have and will do likewise...
I don't think we see DOW 6/7,000 without a Historic Rogue Wave Event... and War in Iraq won't take us there, neither will another Enron/Wcom imho.
Bulls and Bears imho; will get to play tug back & forth from the recent lows to the DOW 9000 ceiling imho.
I think CASH was, is and for sometime to come - will continue to be KING....basically having it to be able to waltz in to take advantage of any Rogue Wave event/MOABO's imho.
I covered most of my shorts into the last meltdown... some probably too soon, but emptied most of my longs (a whopping 10% position) - which hadn't done too well into the little pop here as well... as what I see ahead is a volatile trading range that will slowly narrow over time into a narrower and flatter trading range.
I did catch a bit of a pullback to add another 10% portfolio weighting to Gold... holding 25% GOLD/PM Stocks Long, a 5% toe-dip long in some Utilities, Gas/Energy, Drugs and my reckless 1% Airline play and am not short anything here - now with 70% cash...can't see Bonds as particularly positive either.... can you imagine the day that former daytraders become tax-free Muni players (vbg)... sometimes you gotta take all you get offered ?
But, I am waiting to short any further significant upside here with a 10-20% entre... as DOW 9250+ is insane imho... 7,750 - 9,000 seems to be a "Terrorist/Rogue Wave Event - free" sane trading band... buy the low end - sell the high end imo if you want to trade and anything rallying to & thru DOW 9,000 seems like a nice no-brainer short side trade again as well.
Personally for the time being due to a myriad of Rogue Wave Risks... I'd rather be shorting DOW 9,000 - 9,250 on the upside of the trading range; than buying 8,000 - 7,750 on the downside.
Energy was a "trading" buy below OSX 72... but, the over-done War/RISK Premium in Crude Oil and in the OSX stocks makes them a profit taking "trade" on any & all further upside here and a strong short play down the road if the sector over-reacts (which it will) to an Iraq escalation.
I like energy better as a short play further out as Iraq unfolds... as the World Economy is not supportive of a fundamental Energy Bull... not even close.
If we saw sub OSX 60/Dow sub 7,000 on an event driven market blow off - then the recent historic bottom band of OSX 45-60 is certainly longterm average into territory... 72 to 100 is the fair value trading band imo and with "this" economy going no where fast... I like the ultimate potential on the short side better than the long side as Iraq unfolds....I wouldn't be shorting here, but I would be taking profits each 7-10 points on up... I think a Iraq/War rally on the OSX thru 110-120 is a short sided/put-city Xmas Gift.
Citi's in "Big Trouble in Little China" here per the WSJ expose... Sandy Weil may be joing his kid in rehab, allthough maybe Sandy's should have some bars... Merrill's Pin-Stripped Version of "Fat Bastard" escaped with a Golden Parachute - as did the Grub-Worm (for now)... simply amazing....
Wouldn't it be ironic if Waxal flips on Martha Stewart and she's the only one who goes to jail... while the WCOM, Global Crossing, Enron, Citi/SSB, Tyco rats all get banished to Palm Beach, Newport and the Hamptons to polish up their short game...
Nearly enough to make one want to hoarde some gold and move to New Zealand for a few years untill the World sorts itself out... |
