it wont feel like a v bottom to most people -No, by the time it gets that low, most people will have given up on the stock market and they will no longer be anouncing how far up or down the DOW or NASDAQ is on Natl Public Radio, so most people will not be too concerned w/what it feels like.. then again, if it takes so long to get there it won't even look like a V-bottom; more like a rounding bottom.
Which brings up the following thought: A rounding bottom (is that what it's called?) happens slowly and involves diminishing volatility. The past two years may seem like a long time, but we still have significant volatility, which would indicate that any bottom to occur in the near future would be somewhat sharper than a rounding bottom (whether V-shaped or double, or whatever).
The above makes sense despite the fact that two years of sharp declines are admitedly significant, due to the long time in forming and extreme hights of the bull market that we are coming down from.
In other words, coming down from say 2500 to 1000 in two years would be gradual enough and long enough to attain low volatility, apathy, and a rounding bottom of some sort. But descending from 5000 to 1000 in two years may ne quick enough for a good V-bottom, not being long enough in this case for real apathy to set in..
just my thoughts..
-Brmbls |
