good stuff bro...very good.
i can only say this quick on my way out the door to a busy work weekend...but i think we are at MAJOR resistance on almost EVERY 60 minute and daily chart... moving average and otherwise... on most to all major sectors and indices.
The downward slopes of the 50dma, and divergence from other longer term ma's is much more extreme...and larger respectively, then ever before in the last few years. It would be VERY ABNORMAL to blow through these M/A's on the first try.
Equity P/C ratios are at blow off top extremes.
Bearish rising wedges, flags and complexing h/s formations are everywhere, and forming on most major indexes.
Weak individual equity charts and weak bases...most with many gaps remaining, abound; none of which point to sustainable moves from here. The norm would be complete retraces of the latest moves.
longer term indicators certainly have more room to the upside, previuosly non leading sectors are now rolling to buy signals on a Bullish % basis, but alot of stuff points towards weak down/ sideways ay least for the next couple weeks, at that point we have to take it from there.
i sincerely doubt based on technical analysis only that we explode to the upside. anything can happen of course, but the s/t charts just do not point to this here, and thats all we really have to go by if we are being truly objective. Very LITTLE points to any kind of sustainable move up from here, more like consolodation to down...and maybe a higher low.
this is all quickly off the cuff, stream of conciousness type of stuff, but will help me to think things thru during the day and come back to this later.
Of course, from a more subjective analysis POV, there continue to be compelling fundamental arguments, seasonality and election year issues, and longer term cycle counts that point to new lows here across the board...and soon, within the next few months. Suffice to say they are all VERY compelling arguments, and i am giving them some weight in my strategy going forward.
Very interested in continued thoughts on this... i'd like to get this all in context in the next day or so, to finalize my plan for the weeks and months ahead.
Have a great day all. |
