Augie,
How big does a V have to be to be a V??
A drop from the current equivalent of 1150-850 and then back to 1150 isn't V enough? All in 6-7 months? After that, there was a slow drift of 20% down, and then another big surge.
All I originally asked is why, if we are following the 29-33 drop, is everyone is so sure there are more lows to come because that map says there isn't. What some are doing here is using 96-97 when its convenient, and 32-33 when it works better. 32-33 doesn't really suggest more down to come, it suggests a big run and then backing off to slightly higher than we are here, and then a huge run starting next summer. Huge. But what the bears have on there side is that from now until late spring, we won't be going anywhere net, basically. That will be nearly as crushing to a lot of folks as "the killing fields." Just look at it yourself with an open mind. If we steady sell off into spring after a rise here, and then start a rally next summer that goes on for 2 years, that will be as unexpected as anything. The sense of hoplessness will be pretty high by then.
Imagine an sp run from 1000-1400 or so from 1/2004 to 1/2006. About when confidence is returning, we sell off ofor years because of demographics. Just like from 37-42.
So again I essentially wanted some additional info on why technically there is such certainty here on breaking 1190 and going to 1000 or worse, and why everyone thinks that according to the 29-33 map, we need to go lower. I guess I have your best answers by now.
It's annoying to get slammed after asking some simple questions, especially when I am about as defensive as any of you are right now, but this seems to be the way here. |
