There are millions of muslim youth coming to the age of majority over the next decade or two. And their hearts and minds are up for grabs, either by the west, or by Islamic extremists....
But now there is a potential for the demographics of the region to create major instability throughout the region, and the world (via terrorism).
This is true. It is by no means clear, though, that invading countries and toppling governments is the most effective way to deal with this problem.
There is no doubt about it, US military forces can defeat the armies of the nations in question, individually or collectively, at any time. Unfortunately, it is not their armies that threaten us.
We can easily install new governments in these countries. It will be much more difficult to install stable governments capable of sustaining themselves without constant US support. We cannot sustain an indefinite military occupation of the entire Islamic world, or even a significant portion of it. An occupying army is highly vulnerable to terrorist attack and intifadeh-style resistance. We cannot afford to get involved in this sort of situation.
Even if we do install cooperative governments, it is not clear that we will be able to uproot Islamic fundamentalism.
We have to be clear about who our primary enemy is. It is not armies, or governments. It is a network of religious fundamentalists and their followers, a network spread among a number of nations, some of which support it, many of which do not. That network is quite capable of flourishing and of attacking us without the support of any state or any army.
It's not an easy problem to deal with, nothing so simple as going up against a dictator with an army. Dealing with it requires a subtle, intelligent, long-term strategy, not just wild thrashing about with a big stick. |
