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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group

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To: LindyBill who wrote (38430)	8/18/2002 8:47:45 AM
From: quehubo	Read Replies (2) of 281500

<<America's hawks and the oil lobby consider control of Iraq absolutely essential to finish off American dependence on Saudi oil. No amount of spinning will disguise that this is the real reason for the war.>> The Asia Times comment nails our longer term strategic goal. A friendly government in Iraq would be able to focus investment into their oil production and increase production. It does not matter where the oil comes from really, what matters is what government controls the marginal production. If Iraq stays contained for the 10 years as it is today, the power that SA has as the lead marginal producer would continue to increase. Iraq has tremendous unutilized reserves that through significant investment and time would make it a very large producer. This ability to produce would weaken the all of the lunatic regimes in OPEC, especially, SA & Iran. The short term consequences of gaining control of Iraq could be very high and not brief either. If Iraq manages to damage production fields or export facilities in SA or Kuwait, or even their own, oil supply would be diminished. Iraq's present exports could easily be picked up SA. Without checking, I suspect Norway, Mexico and Russia will be producing at full capacity this Winter. Once we are inside Iraq, SA will be very inclined to be more responsive to our needs. The benefits of winning in Iraq; - Neutralize Iraq's WMD, - take away a hope figure for anti-Westerners who take joy in Saddams existence, - neutralize his support of terrorists, - and the big kahuna is the Iraqi oil and all the power that it includes.

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