The Foreign Affairs thread is very attuned to Debka stuff and the fresh round of reports, so please allow me to add my 2 cents.
1) Debka has a pro-Israeli bent but half the time beats the major media to the news. The other half the time, they print rumors that don't hold up.
2) It has been verified through other sources that Turkish troops control some former bases in North Iraq and possibly some US troops are involved there, and in a very southern region of Iraq, as well. However, the northern region is more Kurdish than Iraqi and because of no-fly zones both north and south, there's not much of earth-shaking importance here yet. The principal reason for some increased activity is more likely to shake out a response from Hussein. Indeed, the media has already indicated he's moving suspected munitions stockpiles around. Rattling the sabre loudly has produced the intended effect: his defensive maneuvers can be tracked by satellite now.
3) Israel's media is starting to generate warnings that delay is letting Hussein stockpile weaponry. Now, suddenly, he has 30+ warheads? Oh please. Dubya wouldn't be puttering around the back 40 on vacation were there any threat so dire. Baghdad would be aglow already.
4) Remember Hill & Knowlton? icij.org
google.com
The best time to get the Iraqi overthrow plan sold to the US public and Congress is during the media memorial extravaganzas slated for the period in the 2 weeks before 9-11. Before it's over, Hussein will be sold as worse than Hitler/Stalin/Pol Pot/Genghis Khan/Bill Clinton/Pete Rose combined.
Here's some known info to maintain perspective: combine France and Great Britain's nukes and it's less than the 400+ that Israel possesses. No evidence has been presented to the UN or the public that Hussein possesses one. If he had a few, dya think he'd take on the backlash from Israel and the US? He could only do so if he had the serious backing of Russia or China. Both like selling him stuff, but I don't see either as presently eager to tangle with the US.
If they are, it's not Hussein we should be worrying about.
5) However, there's no doubt that the sabre-rattling can impact oil prices and market sentiments. As a trader, I figure that leaves me four choices:
a) anticipate a market selloff and build short positions;
b) anticipate a contrarian response and maintain long positions;
c) flee to gold and silver, because some folks do that in scary times;
d) climb under my desk on elbows and knees, nose to the carpet, and cover my head. For added insurance, I'll aim my head towards Mecca.
The bottom line: it's just more uncertainty that will keep many folks going to cash way more than necessary, slowing the rally off this year's bottom. Yet from now till 9-11 could be the best rally time remaining. After 9/11, we'll be into warnings season for 2-3 weeks and the Word will be 'tax loss selling is gonna doom us'. Which will make the last 3 weeks of October another chance for a good contrarian rally, as the earnings reports roll in.
We're not going to war with Iraq in August, when temps can reach 135 degrees F. Only if Saddaam really had nukes would we disregard that. Climatically and politically, the window for an Iraqi invasion opens up between Election Day and Thanksgiving, so December's when I'm looking for the more serious market repercussions.
The current round of manufactured rumors will more likely create good temporary dips to buy into.
All my opinion, of course. And it's sure hard typing down here with my elbows <GG> |
