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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group
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To: slacker711 who wrote (38670)8/19/2002 2:21:37 PM
From: JohnM  Read Replies (1) of 281500
 
We don't really know whether the sanctions would have worked then by evidence now. The arrangement of force was different then. Saddam had been a public US ally in the region until quite close to the time of the Kuwaiti invasion. Some have speculated that he mistook a signal from Baker to mean the US would protest loudly against a Kuwait invasion but do nothing. So he might have been susceptible to sanctions then.

As for now, whether they are effective, it depends on what outcomes you want. We have no idea whether they are having any effect on his armaments issue. No serious evidence has been put forward that I've seen. The only evidence available is rhetoric--we know he wants them, he has had time to acquire them, thus he has them.

There is an argument that Saddam has been kept pent up, not a regional threat, by the sanctions and US overflights, so why not continue that until some sort of internal decay works its will. The argument then goes that the negatives associated with that path--if he has increased his supply of wmds he might use them, are less than the negatives associated with an invasion--long term US occupation that produces nothing better only a great deal more anger at us, increased instability of the friendly govts in the region, etc.
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