Scanned over the NAZ chart for tonight... and here is what I am seeing...
We have some strong resistance at 1400, 1425, 1443, 1450 and 1485.
We have broken a long standing down channel from the 1700 (validated at 1750 , 1425 and 1353 highs and more importantly SUCCESFULLY backtested the break at around 1260. This, technically validates a change in trend.
Now that we have established that a change in trend has occurred , let's take a look at some typical fibo targets which we could also assume come into play.
Our
High : 1750
our
Low: 1200
standard fibo retraces:
38% retrace = 1405
50% retrace = 1471
61% retrace = 1537
Now let's take a look at the chart patterns. We have formed a nice rising channel off the lows and currently are sitting right under the TOP of this channel. A break above 1405 would the breakout buy for a move to 1425, 1440, 1443, 1450 then 1471.
CAUTION: Given that that MANY indicators are now pegging OB, yet we still have not found any reversal candles - there are 2 scenario's which will likely occur as soon as tomo morning.
(1) We could get an exhaustive breakout buy...ie.. a massive blow off top ending at one of the proposed targets.... (A DECENT GAP UP may even do the trick)
(2) and more healthy for the bullish case, a shallow consolidation dip to 1350 ( MAX 1325) followed by another burst to a Higher High still maintaining outlined Targets.
If we are to sustain this rally, then Gap down's are always more preferable as any "blow off top" would pose some significant future resistance as, as usual, shorts panic cover and Longs Panic Buy....
Either way...we look tired..and a resolution to the downside appears imminent. |
