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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group

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To: Hawkmoon who wrote (38758)	8/19/2002 10:06:08 PM
From: Dayuhan	Read Replies (1) of 281500

Until very recently I lived in a freeport zone with a heavy Taiwanese presence; I associated with many Taiwanese businessmen and engineers. I heard the same thing from all of them. They all believed that the status quo is acceptable for the moment: the current Chinese government, they believe, will always shout about Taiwan; it is a matter of pride and a distraction from domestic woes. I have never met a Taiwanese who seriously believes that China will actually invade: they all point out that the political risk involved with a very possible failure far outweighs any potential gain. The general opinion I hear is that the best course to take is to do as much business as possible with China, creating a material incentive to maintain the status quo, and let time do its work: the old guard of the Chinese leadership is dying off and will continue to do so. I am not much worried about the situation in the Spratlys, and I live not far away from them. The saber-rattling has gone on for decades, and nothing has happened yet. The Chinese have more to gain by building trade than they do from interrupting it.

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