The retrace had three touches to the bottom (yet we just got two) and also seems to have four drives to the top, maybe five. So what is a bear to do to cope:
stockcharts.com[h,a]daclyiay[d19970101,19970331][pb9!b13!b20!h.02,.20!b200!b150!b50!f][vc60][iub14!la8,17,9!lh5,5!le5,10,1!li10,10!lp14,3,3!ll14!lo15][J5650092,Y]&pref=G
The bad news for bears is that there are four or five drives to a top but the good news is that the top was within 70 points of the first drive. The first top was 1332, 1355, then 1373, then 1384 and then 1400. The 1332 top had a 35 point sell off, the 1355 top had a thirty point sell off, the 1373 had a 54 point sell off and the 1384 top had a 35 point sell off. And the 1400 top does not count as that is the big slide which you should be a holder and not a trader.
stockcharts.com[h,a]daclyiay[d19970101,19970331][pb9!b13!b20!h.02,.20!b200!b150!b50!f][vc60][iub14!la8,17,9!lh5,5!le5,10,1!li10,10!lp14,3,3!ll14!lo15][J5650092,Y]&pref=G
I don't know how many drives to a top we get. But I don't think it is just one and it would seem to be within 70 point of here per the retrace assuming we had a top yesterday or today. Plan accordingly. So, I will take profits on some later shorts and try to reposition them at a higher high market willing. I don't want to short on weakness here and I don't want to go long either to fight the trend and risk becoming a bagholder. |
