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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis

SOXX 288.52

-0.3%

4:00 PM EST

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To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (4978)	8/21/2002 10:56:47 AM
From: Return to Sender	Read Replies (2) of 95420

Don, I agree that the major impetus behind cutting ratings in the group is to allow the "houses", and their customers, to find lower entry points from which to buy longer term positions. That being said I think the VIX is still stretched a bit too much below its 10 day moving average which should cause some further selling in the group as it continues to rise. The fact that the VIX rose so high last month and now has dropped substantially suggests that investors are willing to accept a slower recovery, possibly even a double dip recession, to buy these stocks at much lower levels than we saw earlier this year. Unfortunately it seems every day we get another downgrade or company admission that business is not as good as had been expected. How much more consolidation we get before the NASDAQ and SOX take another shot at moving higher is anyone's guess but I suspect that this latest run is over after failing to move above 1400 again this morning on the NASDAQ. Just my opinion, RtS

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