Hi jlallen; Re: "Yeah. What's your point? Mine was that large numbers of conscripts surrendered last time and with the experience of the Gulf War in mind, it is very likely those numbers would keep those troops from even leaving the barracks this time."
The figures given were 100,000 killed, 300,000 wounded, 150,000 deserted and 60,000 taken prisoner. Given that the Iraqis ended up being surrounded, and that "deserted" is another term for "escaped with their lives in the face of overwhelming force and returned to their homes", the percentage taken prisoner is fairly small. Saddam had a million man army, but all the US could do was capture 60,000 men?
The history of the Iraqi / Iranian war shows that the Iraqis were far stouter defenders of their own territory (i.e. Iraq) than they were of captured territory (i.e. Iran or later, Kuwait). A regime change by force would require marching on Baghdad. The conscripts would be defending their homes in that case.
By the way, in regards the subject of how Hussein keeps the support of the Iraqi people, I may as well choose now to quote from the book "The Longest War", page 30:
He combined these moves with such popular actions as raising the salaries of the military, police, intelligence, civil service and judiciary. This strategy of ruthless suppression of opposition at higher or more fundamental levels, sweetened with open-handed generosity towards large constituencies, was a replica of the strategy Saddam Hussein had been following concerning the Shia problem.
-- Carl
P.S. 1991 was 11 years ago, so the new conscripts (ages 17-25) were mostly pre teens at the time of the previous conflict. But I don't think this matters much. The German Army saw plenty of bloody conflict in 1918, but was ready and willing to have plenty more just two decades later. I doubt that the effect of time is negligible, but 11 years is a long time. In any case, arguing for an effect that is obviously completely absent just 20 years after a conflict that killed 5% of Germany's men, but would make Iraq a pushover 11 years after a conflict that only killed .2% of their men is rather silly. |
