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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD)
AMD 214.90-0.1%Dec 26 3:59 PM EST

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To: Dan3 who wrote (87430)8/22/2002 2:18:59 AM
From: ptannerRead Replies (2) of 275872
 
Dan, re: range of offerings and validations

My point is that AMD will have to build from a minor (<<10% share) of the server market and within this limited volume among how many projects should AMD (and its partners) best apply their design and testing resources.

I am not quite as optimistic as you about AMD being the market leader... While I think they may have the technology lead in some areas the market is dependent on the implementation, availability and adoption. All things that require considerable investment and time. The design and verification processes should already be underway -- they will not be starting at zero on the day Opteron is announced. But I see the acceptance being considerably longer even if a Tier One vendor announces this as truly extraordinary revolution rather than an evolution. And I doubt a Tier One vendor will award Opteron even half the prominence awarded Itanium. And we know its acceptance has been slow.

And I count eight Serverworks chipsets and these probably have a far greater range of variables than the Hammer series of system configurations. But these sell into a high volume of products (88% of server shipments?) across which to both attract and distribute the development and validation costs (for OEM and customer).

We shall see. It looks better than my general projection but I would far prefer to be surprised good than bad.

-PT
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