JRI, that's an interesting convergence
and I'm glad he had the sharp eye to make that observation, but if you note that the MACD is barely above zero rather than way into overbought (way into the positive numbers) then it makes you wonder. Take a look at the naz weekly over a longer time period for additional perspective.
stockcharts.com[l,a]waclyyay[df][pc8!b5][vc60][iLp14,3,3!La12,26,9]&pref=G
There will almost always be an indicator (last week the P/C was a hot topic) or a set of indicators (velo's observation) or a chart pattern or fib retracements (phoenix' observations) that point in one direction or another.
But although velo says this points to down, the question is "when?" Tomorrow? Next week? After Labor Day? In his conclusion for today, the data is so confusing that he didn't make a call for today, which was a smart decision IMO considering yesterday's whipsaws. That decision to not make a call for today supports marginmike's comment about staying in the weeds as maybe the best choice, and it echoes my comment yesterday that perhaps that's what the smart money may be doing as evidenced by the low volume. If you're swing trading rather than catching few minute wiggles, rather than pre-emptively trying to catch the top I think it's best to wait for a clear roll on the dailies and then go short
There are so many weird things going on fundamentally that it's not funny: witness the Dow's 200 point opening gap on 8/6 supposedly because of the "strengething dollar" or the rally on 8/8 because of a "rate cut anticipation" or the rally last week supposedly because of "reallocation from bonds into stocks." Next week we have end-of-month MF window dressing that could give a little more fuel to the rally. |
