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Strategies & Market Trends : Precious Metals mutual funds (gold, silver, PGMs)
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To: Dan P who wrote (685)8/22/2002 1:22:20 PM
From: Larry S.  Read Replies (2) of 972
 
Dan, et al,

Yes, the CRB seems to extending its up trend; though it has been weak the last couple of days. And, gold seems to be holding above 300. In his latest, Casey gives a number of reasons why he thinks gold is going to make a major move up but one of his reasons is the large industrial demand. He also says he agrees with Pechter that we are headed for a depression worse than the 30s, which, in my view, would cut industrial demand dramatically. Incidentally, Pechter thinks PMs with go down with everything else. I lost a lot of money following Prechter's advice in 87 so I'm not inclined to put much stock in his views.

I didn't notice anything of significance concerning PMs in Barron's this past week nor did I hear anything significant on any of the financial shows I caught. I keep following the lease rates but there doesn't seem to be the correlation that existed during the past bear nor during the recent bull. It may be that I haven't been able to get detailed up dates and am missing something, but it is reasonable that in this consolidation phase that there isn't consistent movement. However, I still see a rise in the one-year rate being associated with major drops in the POG which suggest the leasaing of gold by BBs to sell into the market.

The GMI/POG ratio:

On 08/15, the Barron's GMI was 393.15, up a little from the previous week's 370.15. With the POG up proportionately less at 314.20 (08/16), the ratio was up significantly at 1.25.

The ratio a year previously was 1.13.

Cheers,
Larry
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