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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group
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To: JohnM who wrote (39433)8/22/2002 1:44:44 PM
From: jcky  Read Replies (3) of 281500
 
That's a good summary of a very complex puzzle, John.

There are really two components to the regime change in Iraq proposed by the administration. The first part addresses whether there is a legitimate reason to invade Iraq and the second part weighs in on the wisdom of doing so.

Of course, the US can do as they please because we do carry the big stick but as Brooks and Wohlforth have articulated in FA: "just because the United States can bully others does not mean it should." I think it's apparent the administration is scrambling right now to build such a case against Iraq and linking Saddam to al-Qaida. The Saffire piece today gives some credibility to the administration's case against Iraq but the jury is still out on this one. This is just the first component of the equation which is being addressed right now.

If there is evidence to act against Saddam, the next logic step is to ask if it is prudent to do so. This is where all the cost/benefit analysis comes into play and where most of the uncertainties lie. If we look at Israel's military history as a guide, the policy of pre-emptive strike has had mixed results. In the Six Day War, Israel's pre-emptive attack on Egypt proved to be a decisive victory and laid the foundation for Israel's history of aggressive military exploits. But in the war of Lebanon, an invasion followed by an attempted regime change and occupation resulted in an ignominious retreat which emboldened fundamentalist terrorist groups.

This is a rather complicated situation.
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