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Strategies & Market Trends : Classic TA Workplace

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To: Paul Shread who wrote (50980)8/22/2002 5:00:30 PM
From: mishedlo  Read Replies (2) of 209892
 
As long as people keep buying calls (and as long as the market does not go down) Delta hedging will take us higher than we otherwise would go. I believe I am stating the obvious, but perhaps not. At any rate call buying is bullish until it stops working.

Then, as the hedges are unwound, we can get some decent down.

Another 58000 QQQ Sept 26 Calls were bought today.
215K to 31K
That is pretty damn extreme.
This is not like last Nov where we rose with tons of index puts out there.

The only question is when does the call buying exhaust itself? The best case for the bears is that it does not.
In other words, at some point we have a pullback. People are clearly in a buy the dip mode. If call buying continues on the way down (as it did in June, it can get very very nasty). But as long as we keep chopping higher, I am not sure whether or not that call buying is successfully contrary.

As for short interest..
I am not sure it matters if the increase is in energy stocks as was pointed out. Why should that be bullish for the entire market at all? Furthermore, were there any convertible offerings of any kind? If so Shorting might be a hedge or a way to lock in profit. Buffet recently bought the debt of a couple companies. Might he not be shorting the common on a spike up as a hedge. Not sure this rise in short interest is significant at all. Not sure it isn't but I rather doubt it.

M
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