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Strategies & Market Trends : Effective Trading In Our Markets. Learn, then Earn

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To: Chip McVickar who wrote (1433)	8/22/2002 11:19:50 PM
From: HoodBuilder	Read Replies (1) of 1854

Bear No, Pragmatist Yes. Forget the technical mumbo jumbo and wiggle stuff, the economy X the housing industry is in the hopper, earnings growth rates and PSRs are not at levels which support a market bottom. Larry Kudlow can spin the hell out of the numbers but ask anyone not connected to the residential real estate market how business is and you'll see what I mean. If it weren't for the 13% annual growth rate of the money supply and the lowest interest rates in 40 years we'd be on the corner selling pencils. The problem is, when central bankers try to prop markets the medicine winds up making the patient sicker in the long run. DOn't get me wrong, tradable bounces in bear markets are great profit opportunities but this is NOT the environment you want to reinvest what is left of your decimated 401K. I know this is waaaaay too much on O.J.'s thread, more suited to the likes of Ike, but those were the old days. Sorry if I just didn't tell everyone what i was long or short but every 100 years fundamentals do matter. Remember the scariest 4 words on Wall Street. "It's different this time"

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