AA, Thanks for the response!
The reason for the question is that I seem to see folks reflecting this as an a-b-c with an ending here. As a newbie to EW I've got a real problem with that view. The Book (page 81) indicates that C waves "unfold in five waves." I see too many pretty pictures that show a 3 wave C. It is also noted in the Book (page 21) that "wave 3 is never the shortest wave."
So, if wave one started 7/24 at the 7533 low, wave 1 seemed to end at the 7/30 8762 high, wave 2 was at the 8/5 8031 low, wave 3 was at the 8797 high, and wave 4 was at the 8/14 low of 8353, then wave 1 was 1229 points and wave 3 was 766 points. If wave 3 is not to be the shortest wave, then wave 5 cannot exceed 9119, which is the wave 4 low of 8353 plus the 766 points of wave 3.
I'm trying to look at this as a newbie academic exercise. It would seem to me, as close as we are, that if we exceed 9119, then the wave 3 changes into a five wave pattern (now possibly a c) suggesting a smaller wave 4 and then another wave 5 to finish the pattern (if a c). Since we have already powered past the 50% retracement of the 5/17 high of 10353 to the 7/24 low of 7533, this has us looking at a .618 retracement target of 9276. That sure seems like a number from a chart chaser perspective that would get the bulls all lathered up!
Just a View from the Swamp
Berney |
