The Freep, I offered you a couple of sets of considerations, one by Onischka and one mine, but apparently it wasn’t what you expected. Maybe I misunderstood the question. If you have a good case for ‘down’, and it doesn’t happen, does that constitute a good case for ‘up’? –g/ng.
Message 17910798
Yes, we had a series of likely completed corrective looking Elliott structures, which unfolded right into what would be a typical retracement level for a bear rally… EW discipline would dictate that we should start looking for a possible resumption of the larger trend, in this case down. Which, of course, leaves one with the responsibility of doing the detail work, looking for proper entries, stops, etc.
There is this one point which I am not sure I am expressing… IMHO, the question is not whether or not today’s decline is a ‘trendchanger’, we can only know that in time, but rather what are the correct steps one needs to take as events evolve. We need to keep looking for evidence – primarily, of course, the price action – which would tell us which way the trend is moving – in the time frame in which we are interested.
A point inevitably arrives when there is no longer a question about which way is the market is trending, but until then, it is a process of ongoing educated guessing about a… moving probabilistic target. Funny, if you think about it… A trend is like an electron… a wave – particle, which can be in different places and do different things, all at the same time… -g.
FWIW, I think that a break of the NDX ~970 - 980 level could be evidence for a trend change. This is just about where I have the support trendline out of the 8/5 low. Too many are watching it, however… A move above 1043 (80% of the leg down) may mean that the little bull has strength… I would become suspicious of the bearish case if NDX goes above the now familiar 934, which happens to be now at 61.8%.
Ol’Ski, stuck here @Opinionated.com, tired and almost ready to call it a night. |
