And I mean seriously. . . we all knew we were overdue for a pullback, everyone was looking for it, and then. . . we got it! Spooky weird.
Good Lord.
What was spooky about this at all?
We have been expecting a pullback for weeks it seems.
Eventually it was 100% given that there would be a pullback.
It came today. Was that spooky?
What was unnerving was that I did not profit by it. Shorting and covering every damn spike and finally we get a gap down that does not fill. Probably the first in a FN month. I did buy puts at the open in my IRA but watched the world go by in my trading acct.
Now what?
What do we do on a gap down on Monday?
It can decline all day just like this one.
Why not?
Dip buyers have once again been retrained, bears are scared sh*tless of the gap fill and/or eod/eom ramp job.
A perfect time for none of the bears to participate and all the late comer bulls to get crushed.
The whipsaws are enormous here and IMO will stay this way for YEARS. I am 100% convinced that Mutual Funds no longer have ANY say in what the markets do, Hedge funds and options manipulations by the option pits are the game now. Period, end of story.
pullback call, pullback call, piullback call, pullback call, then NO ONE believes the damn thing when it does happen. When will we believe it?
I think we will believe it when it is 65% over.
How do we play a gap down on Monday?
That is the WORST case scenario for a bear that was rattled out and did not get back in today.
What about bulls? They have once again been trained to buy the dip. Bulls have no fear, bears have plenty of fear.
But is it a headfake? Again a gap down on Monday is most problematic to everyone.
Bulls wondering whether or not to bail and take profits, bears missing the down move after getting rattled out in the last couple of days.
Seriously, does playing the short term make ANY sense?
In a sense it does, as 1200 DOW points is 1200 DOW points. BUT there were signs and most of us ignored them. Now what? Now we are FN guessing. If we played the first gap up and stayed long we would not care 1 iota if we lost a percent or two guessing whwther or not to exit now.
I did not, most here did not that I am aware of, and those on Velo's board for the most part did not either.
I do not know what the answer is but we all seem to want to play the short term plays and the long term plays at the same time. Wiggles, wiggle wiggles. Who has the wiggles correct as of late? Of course if you are unsure you step aside.
At this juncture, I am not sure that a long term view (AFTER EVERY RUNUP OF THIS PROPORTION) is not the best way to go. That long term view is still down IMO.
In Nov one could have taken a long term view on QQQ and shorted it, had it go 15% or more against one, but be 50-60% ahead today.
Is it any different now?
Is the Bottom in?
Should we be scared shitless to short here?
Do we scale in?
Do we try and trade EVERY DAMN wiggle?
IS IT POSSIBLE TO TRADE EVERY DAMN WIGGLE?
Is THE bottom in?
Trying to trade wiggles has cost me plenty.
Now what?
After this 20% runup is this a new bull market?
Do we scale into leap DOW puts?
If the ultimate target is DOW 6000 how is 2004 leap puts wrong?
Buy some and add when wrong?
Of course one has to have CONVICTION that DOW 6000-7000 or even 8000 is indeed the target. Or how about scaling into rydex short fund here. Certainly doing that all year on SPX or NMaz was a winner.
Is it possible to trade the wiggles any more?
I believe this mess is totally out of fund managers control. There are fund outflows and those will increase, not decrease over the next year. Given this assumption, hedge funds and/or options manipulations and/or the PPT (sorry ALLAN) is in control of this mess. What does that mean. Technical choppyness. Is EWVAVE relevant any more? Is Options manipulations the only game in town?
I think Hedge funds and OE manipulations will be rampant here on out. Will be for years. Who knows. MAs will be blown both up and down to convince the TA'ers of what they want to see. Headfakes galore. People's TA skills have gotten better so TA will be of less use IMO. JUDGEMENT IS PARAMOUNT!
Sorry for the long rant.
Comments appreciated from all.
Allan, what do you think?
I think everyone is confused and counts, TA, FA, and everything else will be a big ball of confusion for some time. But.... I do not think we stray far from Max Pain.
Wish I bought 100 CSCO puts today rather than 10.
M |
