Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT) Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT)

AMAT 259.08

-4.1%

Dec 12 3:59 PM EST

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To: Jeffrey D who wrote (2617)	8/24/2002 12:21:43 AM
From: Gottfried	of 25522

Jeffrey, >The analyst, who has been bearish on the chip-equipment sector for some time< More than a year ago on 2/5/01 Mr Fitzgerald was more bullish... from a note to clients Silicon We believe the best entry point for stocks in the semi-equipment sector is when the companies are cutting estimates and management has no visibility. The sector is there, so we would argue that investors should begin circling. But core to the idea of buying on bad news is the trade off of visibility for good value. ËThe run in the stocks last month combined with the deteriorating industry fundamentals now means the group is in the unique situation of having no visibility yet being richly valued. This situation is especially true of the larger cap stocks in the group. ËWe are not backing away from our recommendation to begin circling the group, but we would argue that investors should show discipline given the recent run. We are betting that the news flow will remain mixed at best for the next 3 quarters and provide better buying opportunities. ËPerhaps, a more cogent argument as to why investors should be sensitive to valuation is the uncertainty surrounding the industryfs growth as the cycle re-accelerates. It is unlikely that the growth rates of the last two years can be duplicated given the implosion of some of the end market drivers that fueled the last spending cycle- DOT.com, telecom infrastructure and CLEC spending. Of course many were more bullish then. AMAT was $22.91 that day. Gottfried

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