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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis

SPY 676.41

+0.7%

Dec 18 4:00 PM EST

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To: John Carragher who wrote (83380)	8/24/2002 8:25:31 AM
From: Tom Pulley	Read Replies (1) of 99985

John, I've been overseas all this week. I didn't feel like lugging my laptop around and through all the security checks this time so sorry for not responding to your post a week ago. The mutual fund money flows aren't part of my model although they certainly impact the market. One growth fund manager I'm aware of who uses that data effectively to stay in the right sectors is Louis Navalier. My model is based on two types of indicators. First are longer term indicators such as interest rates, money supply, unemployment growth, etc. Then there are a group of technical indicators that are more short term in nature. The model looks at the relationships of all these indicators to generate the buys and sells. So for instance, if the longer term indicators are looking very bullish; a sell signal on the technical indicators is not the same as when the longer term indicators are bearish. Its a bit complicated but I enjoy it (like a hobby). Plus it has performed quite well relative to the market. The model is up 9% this year versus the qqq down 36%. Perhaps the performance is not as good as some on these threads but good enough for me. And it has been interesting posting my buys and sells and seeing the reaction. For instance, my recent call going to 110% long Monday morning July 22nd got quite a few "interesting" responses and some not so complimentary. Message 17767520 And as it turns out I was a full two days before the market bottom...........so those that thought I was nuts were correct assuming they bought on Wednesday instead of my recommendation for Monday! This week while I was overseas, I got a sell signal on Tuesday so had I been updating the model I would have sold my remaining 50% position in the qqq this past Wednesday morning at $25.42. Up until now this year I have reported all my buy and sell signals on SI as they occur, but for the purpose of documenting the results of the model on SI since we are below $25.42 now, I'll assume a sale at the open Monday which will be below the model sale price. Although I'm now going to 100% in cash, the drop on Friday had some significant effects on some indicators, so perhaps if we go down a bit here it won't last too long. Tom

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