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Strategies & Market Trends : Classic TA Workplace
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To: AllansAlias who wrote (51126)8/24/2002 1:08:40 PM
From: mishedlo  Read Replies (1) of 209892
 
3) The middle road: This is the option killing road, a whipsaw path that would be hard to trade. It would see the drop going deeper than most expect, getting the disinterested and scared bears back into the market. Once we get these reinvigorated shorts back on board, we rise into September expiration, enough to kill the eager put buyers, but still below where we are now so that the calls going off in this last round of panic buying die too.

Ding Ding. The likely winner.
This has been the overall pattern since Jan. Every month but 2 played out like this. Downdraft, rise into expiry week, immediately resumed downdraft. Since no one is talking about this pattern it is the most likely. In fact I am not sure anyone has even noticed it. I have even seen several posts saying Max Pain is not going to be of much use from here on out. Actually Max Pain has worked every month but one, and the pattern above every month but two since Jan. Damn we are talking about that pattern now.

Of course it will not become unreliable until we have concensus that it is the most likely course of action. Should I have kept my mouth shut? Perhaps I am doing my part to build a concensus that will fail instead of trying to profit by it. ggg

M
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