AW-
What switched me to bullish back in July was a) bad news was everywhere and everybody knew it. b) Ken Fisher (OK, laugh all you want, but I think he's more right than most) turned bullish. c) This thread was so bearish that it was considered a given that we were headed down day after day, and d) my own system (a take off on the NYSEBP) called a bottom on 7/11 after about 5 months of being bearish. It was early by a week or two, but nevertheless I made a few $$ on what I sold last week.
As of 8/16 my system called a top, and now I look at all the indexes and standard charts and I see downside in progress. My system gives a signal about every 6-8 weeks on average, so this is short-term bearishness only. Another reason for being bearish is my own reluctance to let go when the system said to sell. I always get greedy when things are about to turn down.
Long term? I'm afraid that Joan G might be right about negative returns over the next 5-10 years. But I fully intend to ride the waves during that period, and I believe that I'll find lots of times that will be great for being long, and other times that will be great for being short.
For the record, I only devised my system in April and May, so I was unable to profit from its bearish call in February. Also, given the amount of data that I have on this system it isn't difficult to accomplish a curve-fit with a very modest set of rules, so some caution is in order.
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