B2L,
Re: "Yousef, Since you have worked with foundries can you describe ... How have
they improved. I think about the additional resources they are getting and the learning curve."
B2L, the foundries have considerably improved over the past decade. They
are now much closer to providing leading edge technology. In the
early days, most foundries received processes from a partnership or "sending Fab".
Now, the foundries are quite capable of developing ASIC processes. The FACT is ... today,
the foundries are at least one-two years behind INTC in equivalent process
at equivalent yield/defect densities. All three leading foundries are
NOT in production for .13um 200mm LowK let alone at .13um 300mm technology.
Two of the foundries are capable at .13um 200mm FSG technology, but yields
are still not competitive. The other "weakness" that the foundries have
is in their transfer of technology between the development facility and then
between each manufacturing Fab. SPICE models change with each of
these transfers. Commodity ASIC's might not be bothered by these changes,
but high performance CPU's surely are.
Questions to ponder:
1) Once AMD commits to significantly outsource their CPU's, how many
process development engineers will "stick around" ??
2) Once AMD loses these engineers, will it be easy to get them back
if the outsourcing strategy needs to come "back in house" ??
3) Can AMD wait for the foundries to "catch up" to INTC ... How do these
foundries get back on the same technology schedule as INTC. Right now,
they are 1-2 years behind.
4) As BMW points out, why would a foundry not expect a profit equivalent to
the profit derived from wafers sold to other customers ??
5) Did you know that UMC has >50 different customers ... AMD won't even be #1
in volume. They will be in the top 5. Should AMD be able to call all
the "shots' on process changes and priority lot needs ??
If you start to think about the answers to these questions and watch
the foundry troubles at .13um (Cu/LowK), I think AMD is taking considerable
risk.
Make It So,
Yousef |
