well.....if you look at the similar march top....you can see the next month was a slow grind down into an options ramp.....then the bigger dump followed.....
that fits perfect with the bigger dump coming end of sept into october....
stockcharts.com[h,a]daclyiay[d20020213,20020525][pb9!b13!b20!h.02,.20!b200!b150!b50!f][vc60][iUb14!La8,17,9!Lh5,5!Le5,10,1!Li10,10!Lp14,3,3!Ll14!Lo15]&pref=G
it also matches the retrace.....
stockcharts.com[h,a]daclyiay[d19960424,19970201][pb9!b13!b20!h.02,.20!b200!b150!b50!f][vc60][iUb14!La8,17,9!Lh5,5!Le5,10,1!Li10,10!Lp14,3,3!Ll14!Lo15]&pref=G
best case scenario....
after the march top....the gap down was never filled......now we have another gap down at 1411.....its not the same type gap...but its similar enough to know that if nasdaq starts getting above 1411 you better start thinking something different might happen and a bigger ramp could happen.....
and nasdaq daily is now coming down from overbought so it will be important to watch for ANTI-VENOM next week....because the only way this can break through that DT and a t-q major would be anti-venom on the daily.....
if the week closes down.....you are looking at d-blows on the weekly that would confirm a nasty october......
as far as the next month is concerned.....good luck predicting it right....we have EOM....sept 11th....OPEX...and the fed meeting.....anything can happen...<gg>
but the big down move if it comes wouldn't happen till after the fed meeting.....thats the down move that would "stick" with not many ramps left till the 1000 bottom... |
