Lucent Technologies (LU) Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Lucent Technologies (LU)

LU 2.660

+1.1%

3:59 PM EST

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To: sylvester80 who wrote (20701)	8/25/2002 2:40:30 PM
From: Elroy	Read Replies (1) of 21876

Lucent will be able to cut enough into 2003 to get under the break even point. Every reduction in the break even point from LU has so far targetted a revenue level above their run rate at the time. They should plan on revenues declining for at least the next two years. Spending doesn't have to go to zero for them to go bankrupt, if spending just drops 10% next year and 10% the year after that, bye bye LU. And it is not that hard to imagine spending doing worse than that for the next 1-4 years. Wireless is slowing, 3G is nowhere to be found, the core has enough capacity for many years it appears, the RBOCs growth is actually turning negative (Q is less than $3!!), and the international telecom companies seem worse off than the US companies. Not the type of environment that encourages spending increases. Just wait until mergers and acquisitions get announced, and then the combined companies promise to do more by spending less..... Elroy

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