mish -- while i will stay away from the conspiracy theories (i.e. who is 'running' the market) i will agree w/ your assessment that the whipsaws are going to be enormous for YEARS.
it will not surprise you that August has not been a profitable month for me, although that in and of itself is uninteresting as i am definitely NOT a 'wiggle' trader and am decently net short in my equity account, so of course i am down and i sort-of expected to be down. what IS interesting/surprising to me is the way certain companies/stocks have been acting recently. for example, the other day i was short JDEC and long WSM going into quarterly reports for both; JDEC missed the license revenue number, guided the next quarter down and the stock went UP $2 bucks, while WSM beat the quarter and guided up but went DOWN $2 bucks. the next day TECD made the number but guided down by about 10%, and in the aweful tape of Friday it only went down a $1 buck.
so basically, i am confused at sh8t, and it sounds like you are too, and it seems that many others on this board are as well.
i will say two things though. one, EVERYBODY knows about the gigantic H&S on the S&P. we breached the neckline hard and on big volume, and have now had a low-volume rally back to the neckline. NOBODY believes it can be that simple; this is the farking S&P for christ's sake; it ain't gonna just test the neckline and head back down again. no way.
two, EVERYBODY knows that we just had a panic low in the 10-year bond as it breached 3.xxx intra-day two weeks ago. NOBODY believes that bonds, especially treasuries, are a good value here with yields at generational lows.
i would be very careful of what everybody knows and nobody believes.
Cheers |
