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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group
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To: jcky who wrote (39859)8/25/2002 8:13:37 PM
From: Hawkmoon  Read Replies (1) of 281500
 
Pakistan is "contained" by India, with regard to nuclear weapons.

Now that situation would DRAMATICALLY change were extremists to seize control of the government and I believe the US would be forced to focus upon destroying Pakistan's Nukes.

In fact, I do tend to believe that the US has required Musharraf to provide details of where Pakis nukes are located so that they can be seized or destroyed rather than falling into the hands of extremists.

There still exists a balance of power in Pakistan where secular elements retain governmental control. Hostile regions are primarily in locations where the government has never possessed much local control (Peshawar, Kashmir.. etc). And one would hope that they haven't been foolish enough to place their nukes in either of those locations. (refer to Iqbal Latif's quality posts on current Paki politics and security posture).

Effectively, in my opinion Pakistan is, or soon will be, in a state of insurgency wherein the US will have to dedicate considerable resources to assisting Pakistan in countering it).

I will grant you that I perceive Pakistan to be a greater long term problem than I do Iraq, solely on the basis of demographics, culture, and possession of nukes.

But Iraq is a future, if not current, problem which we have to the ability to nip in the bud now, before we find ourselves fully engaged on multiple fronts.

Hawk
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