Mucho- The Wired article was indeed illustrative. Gilder was not a tout. He was a believer. And to his credit he correctly foresaw many of the technological advances which shaped, and will shape for years to come, the telecom industry. There has been no greater efficiency gain anywhere in the US economy in the past decade as the reduction in the cost of provisioning bandwidth. Pretty much before anyone else did, Gilder foresaw this advance, and the core technologies that would make it happen (wdm)and it was the focus of his attention while the investment public was still fixated on the computing titans. Whether or not CDMA flowers into a dominant worldwide system, he called CDMA over GSM before ANYONE. He was, as was Dr. J, subjected to a great amount of ridicule and scorn. But he was right. He has proven his bona fides on wireless, and from the time he made the call to the present QCOM has been a very good investment which,alas, bubbled and afforded once in a lifetime cashout opportunities.
He has realized as painfully as any of his subscribers, though, that science and investing are not completely overlapping fields.
When he expresses an opinion about an investment, his track record says that you follow him at your peril. When he expresses an opinion about a technological matter, his track record says you ignore him at your peril. Which is why I asked him about the competitive threat from OFDM, and would now like to see his answer form the springboard for a more detailed discussion.
I do think his analogy of bandwidth to semiconductors is sound, and a nice piece of original thinking. He recalls the days when semi prices started to decline from a few dollars to a tiny fraction of a cent, the same dire future was predicted for the semiconductor industry. The same question was asked, "What are we going to do with all of these things. I mean, there is only so much demand for personal computers." But what we learned was that a virtually free chip meant that one could literally waste the things to computerize all manner of devices such as digital clocks, calculators, household appliances, cars , trucks, planes etc. I think Gilder will be proven right, and when the last mile tangle is finally cleared, the promise of infinite bandwidth will be realized, and we will find uses for it we can't even dream of presently.
Now, the fact that this dream was deferred and therefore will not come in time to save many of his "page 8" companies from liquidation will cause single-tiered conventional minds (STCMs) to dismiss the technology work as well. And Lord knows he's an easy target and a gracious plenty STCMs have taken their shots.
The GTR may be no way to plan for retirement, but it would be foolish to dismiss Gilder as irrelevant. I also note that most men would be on thorazine in an insane asylum after the trip Gilder's taken over the last few years. But he's still here, undoubtedly shaken and saddened over the course of events as the Wired article demonstrates, but nonetheless unabashedly fighting for the things he believes in and doing everything within his power to influence for the better the telecom regulation debate in D.C.
My bet is that we haven't seen the last of him. Just remember, people once thought they had seen the last of Lou Holtz, who was 0-11 in his first year at South Carolina. |
