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Technology Stocks : Lucent Technologies (LU)

LU 2.660

+1.1%

Dec 10 3:59 PM EST

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To: elmatador who wrote (20696)	8/26/2002 10:18:52 AM
From: David Hansen	of 21876

Man, You are a historian... I'm amazed you still remember such OLD news - you had to go back well over a year to find that. Things have changed Elmo, this industry hasn't sat still for that long. There have been so many changes that the rules have entirely changed from July 2001... You are a bitter, old MONI shareholder who wants to think that everyone is in the same pit you dug for yourself... Not true. Demand is now building and will continue to build around convergence. New products from old suppliers will be where the recovery has substance. There will always be some level of TDM, circuit switched, SONET/SDH muxes, etc... while this business won't be growth it will be enough to keep the likes of LU and hopefully NT alive. Carrier VoIP, Carrier Ethernet, etc will be where growth happens. WHen you realize that a GigE port is about 8 times cheaper to produce than an OC12 - you start seeing some of the data that will allow vendors to again sell products to PROFITABLE carriers. The future will be ethernet everywhere because it is cheap and easy to understand. This will drive Metro optical SONET/ETHERNET switches, multiservice switches, DSLAMs fed with GigE, etc... Video to the home over copper is leaving trial stages and will give cable a serious run for their money... DSL lives. You got to have a contrarian mindset to survive in this market. When popular opinion has swung so far to one side - you know that the majority of investors are wrong and are in the process of being hood-winked... Three years ago you would have been right on the money. You are now not only old fashioned in your thinking but you are wrong too...

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