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Strategies & Market Trends : Classic TA Workplace

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To: yard_man who wrote (51208)	8/26/2002 1:28:49 PM
From: AllansAlias	Read Replies (1) of 209892

I opine that you have a conflicted outlook. On the one hand, you expect another low today, but on the other, you expect it to go to Dow 9300. This is unlikely. If we are going to my 9240, then we can not suffer another low of any significance. Under this morning's low three things would happen that would feed into a more significant decline: 1) Today's dip-buyers get whupsawed. 2) I think we'd trigger a set of buy stops for the winners of the last few weeks. The supports are obvious buy-stop locations. 3) We'd be looking at more serious breakdowns in the charts that will want to be fed, even if it is only to go to a s-t low. So, this idea that we can give up 150 Dow points and then spring up to 9300 is just not on for me. What is more likely is my preferred scenario #3 from this weekend, the option-killing whipsaw path that will be most difficult to trade: down soon to hit buy stops and to get the bears interested again, then up to whipsaw the bears, but no way to new highs, then down again. I say again -- just watch the banks. They are not yet threatening to break and until they do, shorting here is a big gamble.

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