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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 331.92

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11:50 AM EST

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To: willcousa who wrote (65368)	8/27/2002 9:15:07 AM
From: mitch-c	Read Replies (2) of 70976

Our historical pattern is that we do NOT impose "control" over such countries. Even Germany reverted to an independent, indigenous government soon after our WWII victory ... that is, the Western part. The Eastern part took a little longer to get there. I suspect that we will have significant influence over whatever government replaces Saddam's thugocracy -- but not outright control. Don't forget the Iraq-Turkey pipeline routes to the Black Sea or the Med ... which conveniently duck current Persian Gulf chokepoints. I agree that, given the current imbalance of worldwide oil supply (surplus) to demand, REopening widespread access to Iraqi oilfields will drive down oil prices. That scares the Saudis, whose slightly more benevolent thugocracy depends on an export economy. OPEC ain't the gorilla it was thirty years ago. However, what scares the Saudis more is an example of a functioning Muslim democracy. THAT is contagious, and they don't want to catch it themselves. ==================== I think the market reaction to military action will be fear, followed rapidly by relief born of certainty that we're finally acting. We've never stopped being at war - one way or another the last decade - with Iraq. Expect either an Afghan model (SOF-supported local fighters backed by precision bombing) or a conventional model of ground war. I'd bet on the first. My current guess of conventional activity is an amphibious/airborne coastal invasion up the Tigris/Euphrates corridor as a distractor, followed by an armored sweep from the northern no-fly zone (via Turkey). As before, we'll be able to get inside the Iraqi decision cycle, and use confusion as a force multiplier. - Mitch (NB: I was laid off a few weeks ago in a telecom ripple.)

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