interesting response to strong durable goods numbers
Dow futures reversed from minus 40 to plus 70
but the open gave it all back, went to minus 70 on Dow
I found it almost hilarious this morning on CNBC
10 minutes before the durable number was released, Middleton spoke about bonds, and shared a screamer
AVERAGE BOND RATING FOR S&P500 COMPANIES IS JUNK !!!
never before in history, my friends, NEVER
he referred to the widening spread from corp bonds to Trez bonds
he said outright that Trez bonds are overpriced, implying rates are bottoming out
the credit stress to corporate American is MONSTROUS now
then comes the durable goods rise of 7.5%
they revised down even lower the June negative
my guess is this July number will be revised down next month
why do they revise?
because their numbers are a mix of actual data, stupid assumptions that miss every trend change known to mankind, plain bullshit to make the numbers look good for political reasons, and also the incorporation of distortive crapp like productivity, inflation, and seasonality (all of which they have demonstrated zero expertise with)
my main question is simple
ex-autos, the durable rise was still good
but how much is from corp capex?
how much is from housing?
big difference between corp telecom systems, computer servers and networks, industrial widget makers, airconditioning systems, filtration systems, chipfab plants...
versus...
washing machine, television, stereo, refrigerator, stove, dryer, safes with gunracks, jacuzzi
my guess is the durable number is part of the refi and housing sale blowoff top in progress
what is your ducky opinion?
/ jim |
