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Technology Stocks : Nokia Corp. (NOK)

NOK 6.835

-1.1%

Nov 7 9:30 AM EST

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To: Sam Salomon who wrote (2406)	8/27/2002 1:49:54 PM
From: Eric L	Read Replies (1) of 9255

Sam, re: zola's 3 China Scenarios << can you guess, why the authors may believe that the different scenarios would lead to these vastly different numbers, esp. for GPRS and CDMA 1x? >> Well, I think they (he) develops sound rationale in slides 9 through 11 in developing a case for why the 3 different scenarios will potentially result in 3 different penetration rates over the next 5 years as depicted in slide 12. I am less sure why they (he) feels Unicom will: * Support CDMA for ‘value add’ but will give into GPRS in 2004. * [Be] More reluctant to W-CDMA but will start 2005 I personally don't see this happening, but that is one possible scenario. Left to its own devices, China Mobile will of course migrate to WCDMA in new spectrum (and could include TD-SCDMA in the UTRAN) and conceivably EDGE in existing spectrum ... ... BUT China Mobile may not be left to its own devices. There is a real battle that will take shape here. The commercialization of GSM/1x could play a role (but it is not a given that Unicom will deploy it although I'm rather sure they will trial it). The very recent decision by members of Qualcomm's value chain to commercialize cdma2000 for 2.1 GHz in timely fashion is also potentially a very important decision, and I might add that it is about bloody time. As I pointed out in an earlier post, David Almstrom, the principle author (aka the “wireless guru”, aka "the Mouth") was previously Vice President of Business China at Ericsson (China). He may have real insight. He may simply have an abnormal bias for 3GSM. Hard to say. I would love to see the script behind the slides. Do you have some thoughts on this? - Eric -

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