RE: So one can buy CGRM , which has annual revenues of 100 million, for 40 million dollars.
This assumes that one could buy CGRM based on today's price which is not the case. Typically, a company gets bought for 2-2.5X earnings which puts CGRM around 225-275M, or about $30-$35/share. If you factor in the cgrm cash, then one could buy CGRM for around $200M.
I personally think that Lucent is making a mistake. Their core competency is NOT messaging, but switching. Their own VM division has failed to ever perform. They will likely lose every PBX vendor's distribution channel (i.e. Mitel, Fujitsu, NEC, Motorloas, etc.). I see Octel gradually losing market share to non-Lucent PBX customers. Not a single switch vendor has succedded as a VM provider including Lucent (only Nortel has even done OK).
The CGRM-Lucent deal is interesting. One would assume that Lucent evaluated all of the VM companies to see who had the best cellular solution. It is puzzling that they give this huge and growing market to CGRM, and then buy Octel. Let's see if CGRM keeps this business, or if Lucent moves to Octel. |
