Something along those lines that says down may be limited, but what do I know?
These numbers are using the NDX and SPX Indexes not the actual futures...
Back in February when we had the 3 Drives method we went up for 103 points onthe NDX and 45 points on the SPX. percentage wise that is 7.29% on the NDX and 3.24% on the SPX. As of todays lows (972 on the NDX and 930 on the SPX) we have gone down 7.7% on the NDX and 3.62% on the SPX. Thus we've already gone further on a percentage basis.
Now, I'm not sure this is part of the 3 Drives method, but what is interesting is what followed after those percentages were met back in February. Over the following 6 trading sessions (from high of the 1st to low of the 6th session) the NDX went down 11.88% and the SPX went down 4.4%. Thus, when the 3 drives method was triggered in February the Indexes did what they were supposed to do for the first 5 days, but then a bigger move ensued the other way over the next 5 sessions. FWIW- tomorrow is the 5th day. Tus is the same pattern were to form, we turn mid-day somewhere and close tomorrow near the highs after starting out the day going down.
One more thing I looked at regarding the ranges of trading days back n Feb versus now... Back in February this whole move up and then down took 10 days. The range in days 6-10 on the NDX are much larger than the range of days 1-5. In fact the smallest day in days 6-10 is right about the same as the largest days in days 1-5. What does that mean? If we were to do the same thing now as back then, the ranges will be next larger over the next 5 days on the NDX then they were the past 5 days(tomorrow is the 5th day wen I say the past 5 days). On the SPX the ranges are significantly larger on days 7,8,9,10 than they are on 1-6 back in Feruary (on a percentage basis).
As for which index is better to trade over the last 4 days(since the 3 drives started)... not including AH. Thus opening to close at 3pm... day 1) NDX 32 pts, SPX 19 pts, day 2)NDX 34 pts, SPX 25 pts, day 3) NDX 30 pts, SPX 20 pts, day 4) NDX 50 points, SPX 25 pts. Remember these numbers ar eth eindex numbers not the futures. The NQ's actually had a range of about 56 today and the ES about 27. Today is the only day of the last 5 that the Index is significantly different than the Futures. It's b/c they came out of the gates this morning propping up the NQs in the first 5 minutes and then it fell down fast. The ES didn't really get propped up as much right on the open.
Does any of this mean anything? Who knows? I was bored, but I'm glad I did it... had I not I'd proabbly be way to biased to go short all day. I have difficulties going long so at least this will stay in the back of my mind to remind myself that going long is ok too. |
