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Strategies & Market Trends : Classic TA Workplace

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To: marginmike who wrote (51451)	8/28/2002 11:18:27 AM
From: reaper	Read Replies (2) of 209892

mm -- these are my thoughts exactly. the big H&S is there, and NOBODY really believes that it could really play out in a textbook manner. a lot of the FA bears like Biggs, Wein, A. Gary Shilling, Martin Barnes are turning bullish. lots of people talking about maybe a low-volume retest of the lows; nobody talking about just crashing through them (excepting AA and his expectation for new tech lows). EVERYBODY ('cept me <g>) saying the bull market in gov't bonds is over. i still think that the most 'out of consensus' scenario is hard down on stocks and a continuation of the treasury market rally (with spreads widening so that corporates don't participate as much). of course, we could whipsaw around a bunch before this happens. that's why i personally think trying to trade this market is crazy, and am just sitting around w/ my long-term short-and-hold positions, with a handful of really cheap longs to partially hedge upside. Cheers

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