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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group

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To: Hawkmoon who wrote (40523)	8/28/2002 12:28:02 PM
From: JohnM	Read Replies (1) of 281500

Actually John, I have to say that I'm finding myself underwhelmed by the case the Bush administration is making vis-a-vis Iraq. That's rather telling, Hawk. You and I start from different places. I'm far more skeptical of their aims and their claims of evidence we can't see than I thought you were. The fall politics of this could be interesting, perhaps disturbing. One of the surprising things to me has been the apparently inept way the Bush folk have played the domestic politics of this. It's been very, very bad. They can't seem to get started. And that has to go to the very top. And what makes it most surprising is I had come to believe that Bush Jr was good with the politics, that is he was a capable player. I would have thought that a couple of somewhat pump up the troops speeches from Bush and they could get a resolution through the Senate. No doubt, it would get amended to include a provision for a restored but very strict inspection regime with time limits but they are going to have to go there anyway. But I think it unlikely that any Senator up for reelection would vote against doing something about Iraq if they could find the cover of an inspection amendment. The one thing that says I'm wrong on the ease with which that could take place is my own scenario, that American public opinion bails out on all this when the first or second set of seriously bad news comes through. Senators could see that possibility and simply not want to vote either way. Then what would they do? As for the UN security council, I would expect that to be a tougher nut to crack but that basically, it's the same bit. Get a resolution for strong inspections with a tight time table, get it voted through. And go. Such resolutions can be vetoed by permanent members but even a veto would serve the Bush administration's purposes. Right now, they appear to be doing nothing. Perhaps they will crank up their political machine come fall.

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