yes, its true there is a lot of over confidence out there by J1P but lets look at the facts about sentiment
1)bulls bears in most survey has more bears(though this could last a LONG time more to equall other bear markets it is a sign of worry)
2)short interest was at record high's until a week ago
3)Vix and VXN near high end of spectrum
4)media, front cover's etc have put Bear in spotlight which is usially not so bearish
5)COT covering, and small guys getting short
6)Insider buying, and corporate buybanks are humming again, which is usially bullish
The Negative side has
1)P/c has had a few absurd days last week
2)Credit bubble is being ignored, its implosion will destroy equity prices
3)Bond yields at historic lows, dipicting lots of fear
4)LTBH, and Media still believe in LTBH
If you have any other please add, but it seems the 1st side has more TA and objective barometers such as VIX, COT's etc whille the 2nd is all are subjective experience. There is no doubt in my mind that the sentiment is negative the question is it as negative on the down as we were Positive on the up. I would like to see talk of bank failures, and maybee a brokerage blows up(literally or figurativly) before this is over. I simply think that sentiment is bad, its just not bad enough. How anyone believes markes will rally as housing is peaking has my vote for clown of da year. Again I am uterly mystified at what to do because I think to selloff we need to burn off negative sentiment first, and a rally will be tough with FA here. |
