dood why are you always telling me to relax? i've made like 3 trades in the last month; you guys are the ones that need to chill <g>
yeah i've been getting squeezed since 24 July. matters as much to me as $5 downdrafts in QCOM in 1999 mattered to you. they'll have to get the S&P back to 1250 and the 10-year back to 6% before i even start to flinch.
i don't see the small specs 'hugely' net short. i think AA if i have read him right agrees. i see them 'some' net short. as i have said, the crowd is RIGHT. bearish thoughts are slowly making there presense known, which will continue the bear trend, not reverse it.
of course we are all talking about the ultimate end game here it think, its just a matter of how we all plan to get there.
on gold -- i have posted before that i am now convinced that gold is NOT a proxy for inflation but is instead a proxy for expected real returns on alternative assets (stocks, bonds, real estate, commodities). as such i believe that the 10-year with a 2-handle and higher gold prices are perfectly intellectually consistent. i am also encouraged as this is WAY 'out of consensus' thinking, which makes it more likely to be correct <g>
on the CRB -- i don't watch the CRB per se. i watch (though not really closely) industrial metals. with the exception of nickel the last time i checked prices were pretty much falling again.
DRAM prices are falling. hotel room prices are falling. new and used car prices are falling. cruise prices are falling (if the 5 emails i have gotten in the last 18 hours are reflective). rents in boston are absolutely collapsing.
oil is up. but it is up due to threat of conflict, nothing else. the marginal cost to find of barrel of oil continues to decline due to advances in technology. there is excess production capacity (land rigs; offshore rigs; supply boats) so the costs of getting it out of the ground are also declining. over the intermediate term (18 months +/-) we will be back toward the long-run equilibrium price in the $23-24 range.
i am also just speaking out loud to spark debate.
i think everybody knows that i'm thinking, and my posts reflect, longer time frames than most if not all on this board. i am not trading the bear because the bear isn't done until its mauled EVERYONE, bull and bear alike. fortunes are not made in bear markets; they are made by having capital to put to work when the bear is over. so my goal is firstly and foremost to PRESERVE capital, and maybe make a little on the side.
Cheers
(oh yeah. i know the Red Sox suck. i conceeded defeat in a post to Freep on Monday nite, after Howry gave up that 4-spot in the 8th. i think the headline in the Globe the next day that we came back and won that game is just dis-information meant to get me to keep my NESN subscription for another month <g>) |
